Southeast #11: The great regression, Pt 2
Cronies aren't just winning. They are building moats.
And we have Part 2.
Yesterday, I listed out seven cronies, each from a different country and how some of these names are accumulating wealth, using their political links as a springboard.
Each country has some nuance. But all are connected towards the controversies they cause.
This time round, I’ll tie it up with a short predictive analysis. It’s definitely not good news. You don’t read this newsletter for that anyway.
But it also depends on how you treat it. For some, even the most adverse situations are opportunities.
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As we head into 2026, cronyism in Southeast Asia shows few signs of abating, with political dynasties, weak institutions, and economic pressures continuing to entrench elite networks.
This despite all the technological advances over the past few years, including AI and other developments that essentially lower the barrier to entry for just about anyone trying to make a buck or two online.
Democratic indicators are still flatlining.
Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index for 2024, which was released early this year, underscored regional stagnation.
Singapore being the typical outlier, Malaysia remains in the middle while others tout slight improvements, but not equivalent to a major breakthrough.
Even major regional economies like Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines didn’t show much progress.
The trifecta of unfulfilled anti-corruption pledges, climate vulnerabilities and authoritarian trends have come to mark Asia-Pacific in general, and these are expected to get worse.
Here are some of my predictions for 2026: